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This paper assesses whether current manufacturer delivery projections are consistent with the 2050 net-zero target. Through modeling lifetime CO₂ emissions from the 2023 global fleet and new aircraft deliveries through 2042 under three decarbonization scenarios – baseline, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and optimistic SAF + Fuel Efficiency, the research concludes that the 2023 in-service fleet is projected to emit about 9 billion tonnes of CO₂ before being retired, or almost half of a net-zero carbon budget. Lifetime emissions from new aircraft delivered from 2024 to 2042 are projected to exhaust the balance of a net-zero carbon budget between 2032 (Baseline scenario) and 2037 (Optimistic SAF + Fuel Efficiency scenario). This indicates that for airlines to achieve their climate goals, all new aircraft delivered by the mid-2030s will need to emit zero net CO₂ emissions throughout their operational lifetimes. The research also concludes there will be a market for at least 10,000 new aircraft powered by hydrogen, electricity, or 100% SAF through 2042.

To reach the net-zero CO₂ goal, aircraft manufacturers will need to dramatically increase their investments in lower emitting aircraft, notably zero emission planes (ZEPs). Manufacturers can:

1. Accelerate efforts to develop narrowbody ZEPs, especially those powered by hydrogen, that emit no CO2 during operation.
2. Ensure that all new aircraft can burn 100% SAF, not just SAF blends, starting in 2030.
3. Establish aggressive “value-chain emissions” (those released during the lifetime of a product’s use by its customers) targets requiring that the aircraft they deliver will emit less CO2 throughout their lifetimes.

Figure. Consumption of aviation carbon budget from cumulative lifetime emissions of projected fleet

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Many countries and regions outside of the United States have committed to zero-emission railways, and overhead catenary systems have become the dominant zero-emission pathway, globally. Meanwhile, catenary systems are used for less than 1% of the U.S. rail network, largely due to the private ownership of freight railroads and the associated financial burdens of installing catenary systems. Countries worldwide have started to explore other low- and zero-emission pathways as well, such as battery-electric, hydrogen fuel-cell, and diesel-hybrid battery-electric locomotives, or a combination of catenary system with these technologies.

The United States has been recently undertaken efforts at a national- and state-level to decarbonize the rail sector, such as through incorporating rail in the U.S. national blueprint for transportation decarbonization and the adoption of California’s In-Use Locomotive Regulation in 2023.

To support U.S. rail decarbonization efforts, this technical brief provides an overview of the existing and emerging low- and zero-emission propulsion technology pathways for locomotives, showcasing the global state of development and reviews the state-of-the-art economic assessment for the technologies.

Key findings from this review include:

• Each of the major zero-emission technologies have specific challenges and opportunities. Hence, there is no single technological solution applicable for all rail networks and locomotive segments, i.e., freight, passenger-rail, and short-distance switchers.
• Potential interim solutions for the U.S. freight rail could include the use of partial catenary systems, which combine catenary systems with batteries, fuel-cells, or diesel-hybrid powertrains.
• The transition to zero-emission technologies could vary over the locomotive segment, considering the available technologies and relative economics, plus the extent of local air quality and related health impacts. For instance, switchers, industrial locomotives, and passenger rail segments could be prioritized for early decarbonization given that such segments operate relatively shorter distances and consume less energy than freight rail and are associated with significant local air quality impacts.
• Large gaps exist in literature regarding data and estimates for the cost-benefit or total cost of ownership of the technologies. The available estimates indicate that adopting low- and zero-emission propulsion technologies could lead to significant fuel cost savings and health and climate benefits from reduced emissions. With further technological advancement, commercial deployment, and market maturity of the technologies, the total cost of ownership of zero-emission technologies are expected to be lower than conventional diesel powertrains in the future.

Table. Qualitative performance assessment of major zero-emission locomotive technologies  

The post  Zero-emission locomotive technologies: Pathways for U.S. rail decarbonization appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

With economic forces and policy efforts encouraging transportation electrification, it is critical that electric vehicle (EV) demand on the power grid be carefully integrated to avoid unnecessarily higher costs for consumers, the power system and the environment all of which could slow down the transition to a cleaner transportation sector. Significant amounts of electric transportation load is flexible and controllable, and this flexibility is a resource available for utilities to manage over the course of the day in response to conditions on the grid.

The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) in collaboration with the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has undertaken a global study to assess the economic and environmental benefits of managing EV charging in the four largest global EV markets: China, the United States, Europe and India. Unlocking System Savings With Flexible EV Charging: Lessons From Colorado is the first report published as part of this global project. Focusing on the U.S. state of Colorado, this report was undertaken with the support of Evolved Energy Research (EER) to model the potential for EV flexibility to be used to lower the costs of transportation electrification. Unlocking Savings identifies the system value that can be realized by optimizing EV charging, and gives recommendations for utilities and planners on how to unlock this value, with additional benefits for consumers and the environment.

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The post Zero-emission vehicle phase-ins: Passenger cars and vans/light trucks (May 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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(Washington, DC) May 30, 2024 — Today, the International Council on Clean Transportation released its annual assessment of automaker’s progress transitioning to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The transition continues to accelerate, reflected in growing sales, improved technology performance, and more ambitious visions.

The ICCT analyzed 21 of the world’s largest automakers by volume across 10 custom designed metrics in three categories. Together, these metrics reflect the readiness to produce fully ZEV vehicles on a timeline swift enough to keep up with the global transition.

This report uses 10 custom-built metrics that fall into three categories (figure below).

Most automakers improved across 6 of these key metrics: ZEV-equivalent sales share, energy consumption, driving range, ZEV target, ZEV investment, and executive compensation tied to ZEV development. Other key takeaways include:

• Tesla and BYD were still leading the pack in 2023. However, to maintain that edge as the EV market matures, BYD will need to shift away from PHEV sales which are currently at 48%, and both OEMs will need to expand their class coverage.
• Mercedes-Benz, SAIC, and Chang’an are the most improved manufacturers in the rating compared with 2022. Mercedes-Benz is one of the most improved in decarbonizing its supply chain with increased use of renewable energy and deployment of battery recycling and repurposing. The other was Chang’an, which announced new battery recycling and reuse efforts. SAIC has the largest growth in its ZEV sales share.
• Automakers based in Japan and India are still at the bottom of our rating, but Tata Motors is a rising star. Tata Motors increased its ZEV target ambition and investment, along with significant technology improvements.

“Automakers are making substantial progress in the transition to zero-emission vehicles, but more work needs to be done,” said Zifei Yang, report author and Global PV Lead at the ICCT. “To be competitive into the future, OEMs will need to expand their ZEV models on offer to help boost their ZEV sales share while improving ZEV technology performance.”

ICCT modeling indicates that nearly 100% of new light-duty vehicles sold in leading markets in 2035 must have zero tailpipe emissions to put the transportation sector on a trajectory aligned with the goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C, as defined in the Paris Climate Agreement. “Automakers that are slow to invest in the advanced technologies that regulations are designed to promote may soon find themselves outpaced by competitors who more wisely bet on the future,” says Stephanie Searle, ICCT’s Chief Program Officer.

– end –

Media contact
Zifei Yang, Program Lead
Kelli Pennington, Global Communications Manager
communications@theicct.org

Publication details
Title: The Global Automaker Rating 2023: Who is leading the transition to electric vehicles?
Authors: Chang Shen, Ilma Fadhil, Zifei Yang, Stephanie Searle

About the International Council on Clean Transportation

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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